Ahead of Kenya updating its Nationally Determined Contribution for (2031-2035), the Steering Committee of the Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Multistakeholder Platform (CSA MSP) worked in partnership with The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and the AGNES to conduct an NDC- Agriculture situation analysis to inform the agri-food section of the new NDC. In this regard, the AGNES took the lead in conducting the situational analysis of agri-food systems transformation for climate adaptation and mitigation in the country in close liaison and coordination with the Climate Change Unit of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MOALD) and CSA MSP. The aim of the analysis was to provide a detail understanding of the gaps and opportunities for food systems transformation toward climate resilience and low emission.
The Role of Agriculture in Kenya’s economy and Climate Agenda
The agricultural sector directly contributes 33% to Kenya’s GDP and indirectly boosting it with up to 27% from linkages to other sectors. Also, 80% of Kenyans depend on agriculture for livelihood with 40% of Kenyans getting their employment from it. Being a climate-sensitive sector, agriculture is affected by extreme weather events like prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, and flood. Consequently, poverty and food insecurity are exacerbated affecting majority of farmers who are small holder farmers. At the same time, Agricultural activities also contribute to climate change as farming inputs, and livestock contribute to Greenhouse gas emissions.
Why the situational analysis ahead of NDC (2031-2035)
The situational analysis aimed to
- Conduct an implementation gap assessment of the existing CSA strategy, the NCCAP and NAP used as basis of the implementation of the Kenya NDC 2020, and identify key measures for integration into the new NDC
- Conduct opportunity mapping of emerging pathways/actions/strategies and practices on food systems transformation in Kenya for the new NDC
- Engage stakeholders to identify policy measures for development of low emissions and climate resilient food systems for inclusion in the new NDC
- Conduct stakeholder engagements and consultations with the CSA-MSP thematic working groups to identify and validate identified policy measures
- Organize validation workshop to review the findings for appropriate recommendations of key measures for inclusion into the new NDC.
The study was carried out under Work Package 1 of the CGIAR, Low Emissions Food Systems Development research initiative which is supporting national stakeholders in defining the priorities, scope, and goals in the development of low-emission and climate-resilient food systems in Kenya.
How the Situational Analysis was conducted
It was conducted in five phases: Phase One: Review of literature, analytical studies and in-depth review of existing policy documents related to the Kenya agricultural sector and NDC processes; Phase Two: Stakeholder Mapping and Engagement; Phase Three: Framework to Conduct Situational Analysis: Phase Four: Reporting and Dissemination: Phase Five: Project Report Writing and Submission
Key Findings from the Agriculture Situational Analysis
The in-depth agriculture situational analysis covered Kenya National climate policies and action plans, including the three versions of the National Climate Change and action Plan (NCCAPs), the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and the Nationally Determined Commitment (NDC).
Implementation Gaps in the NCCAPs
NCCAP I 2013-2017
At its core, the Plan advocates climate-smart practices—ranging from drought-tolerant crop varieties and improved livestock management to expanding renewable energy and upgrading public transport systems. These strategies are geared towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing community resilience against climate shocks. However, there are significant implementation gaps including:
- Limited resources
- institutional drawbacks
- Deficiencies in data
- Monitoring, and reporting
- Capacity building deficits,
- Inadequate stakeholder engagement
- Limited budget for climate action,
- Slow uptake of technology and infrastructure,
- Poor robustness of policies in specific sectors
- Gender and social inclusion issues.
(NCCAP II) 2018- 2022
Building on the NCCAP 2013-2017, NCCAP 2018-2022 outlines actions to implement the Climate Change Act and fulfil Kenya’s commitments under the Paris Agreement. It included 22 adaptation actions, 9 mitigation actions, and 5 actions that met both adaptation and mitigation goals in 7 priority sectors. The strategic objectives of the NCCAP 2018-2022 are aligned with the government’s Big Four Agenda (that prioritizes enhanced manufacturing; food and nutrition security; affordable housing; and universal health coverage) and Vision 2030 whose objective is ‘to transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens by 2030 in a clean and secure environment. However, this second NCCAP still had its implementation gaps, and they include:
- Weak or non-existent climate change coordinating units
- Poor coordination among the different actors
- NCCAP implementation and reporting process are not fully streamlined.
- Inadequate financial resources to support implementation and reporting
- Low private sector and CSOs response during the reporting process compared with training on NCCAP reporting.
(NCCAP III) 2023-2027
The NCCAP III builds on the frameworks set by the previous action plans, aiming to strengthen the country’s climate resilience while contributing to the global effort to mitigate climate change. However, the following are the noted implementation gaps:
- Insufficient Domestic and International Climate Finance
- Weak Inter-Institutional Coordination
- Gaps in Climate Policy Integration
- Deficiencies in Reliable Data, Monitoring, and Reporting
- Limited Human Resource Capacity
- Inadequate Participation
- Slow Adoption of Climate-Smart Technologies
- Inadequate Gender-Responsive Climate Action
Implementation Gaps of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2015-2030
Kenya’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2015-2030 serves as a cornerstone for building climate resilience in alignment with the nation’s long-term development agenda, Vision 2030. It provides a comprehensive framework for integrating adaptation measures into national and county-level development planning and budgeting, ensuring that socio-economic and environmental systems are safeguarded against the growing impacts of climate change. The NAP is observed to have the following implementation gaps.
- Weak mainstreaming of climate change into development plans
- Vulnerability assessments and risk mapping
- Gender inequality in climate adaptation
- Climate finance access & readiness.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 2020-2030 Implementation gaps
Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commits to reduce GHG emissions by 32% until 2030. To achieve its NDC target, Kenya must reduce its GHG economy-wide emissions by 42.9 million tonnes of Carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2eq) relative to the BAU scenario by 2030 (30% reduction). The NDC is far from effective due to the following gaps:
- Weak Coordination among key state-actors
- Limited Access to Technology Transfer and Innovation
- Lack of Comprehensive Monitoring and Evaluation Systems: There is no standardized system
- Policy Incoherence
- Unsustainable Land Use Practices
Call to Action for Kenya’s NDC (2031-2035)
The Agriculture situational analysis culminated in actionable recommendations to guide the updating of Kenya’s NDC including, first, transitioning to resilient and sustainable food systems through agroecology. This can be successfully done by; increasing resource use efficiency and productivity in agricultural production landscapes; strengthening mechanisms for production, distribution and using locally produced agroecological/organic inputs; facilitating integrated ecosystem restoration in landscapes and promoting conservation and use of indigenous/locally managed seed and livestock breeds.
The second action would be embracing sustainable consumption and transitioning towards healthy, diverse and sustainable diets for all. Effective measures for this action include Facilitating the transition towards healthy, safe and sustainable diets for all, promoting transition to a circular food system and promoting consumption of indigenous foods and protection of traditional food culture.
Third, there is need for research, innovation, training, and co-creation on Agroecological approaches. Measures to ensure the success of this action include mainstream research on agroecology in the country’s National Agriculture Research System (NARS); strengthening extension and centres of excellence to promote agroecology, and revitalization of traditional food ways and associated Indigenous technical knowledge.
Fourth, social equity, inclusion and participatory governance in the agri-food system should be highly emphasized. Key measures to achieve this action is, one, through facilitating access and control to productive resources by women, youth, vulnerable groups, marginalized groups and indigenous communities. Second, is enhancing equitable participation and meaningful engagement in food systems transformation.
Lastly, action five would be enabling environment and incentives for scaling up agroecology by strengthening the policy, legal and institutional framework for agroecology; developing and promoting sustainable financing models for scaling up of agroecology; developing and creating incentives for scaling up agroecology, and strengthening value addition, markets, and trade
