African Climate Experts Statement on the Need to Enhance Existing IPCC Scenarios
The African Group of Negotiators Experts Support (AGNES) convened a meeting of various African experts that was held in Nairobi, Kenya between 20 to 22nd March 2024. The meeting that drew representatives from the five sub-regions of Africa strategized on how to approach the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Cycle (AR7), and how to fill knowledge gaps identified for Africa. Over 65 experts attended the meeting and raised concerns over the scenarios that were used in AR6 due to various limitations and the implications of these scenarios for policy development and climate equity and justice. The experts agreed that from the outset of AR7, it is important to start the cycle with a set of scenarios that reflect the aspirations of Africa and the entire Global South. This is necessary to avert past inequalities by scenarios that formed part of past assessments. This will be especially important for the proposed Special Report on Cities, as the current scenarios are not suitable for capturing the unique challenges and opportunities of cities in Africa and the Global South in general.
The experts expressed firm commitment to work with you and the IPCC community in addressing these concerns in AR7 starting with the Special Report on Cities report given that the scenarios were also identified as being largely urban blind. In this regard, the experts request the modeling community to design a set of models that incorporate the following aspects:
a)Convergence in the final energy per capita between the Global south and Global north, transitioning towards full access for populations in the Global south to clean energy by 2030 (according to SDGs);
b) Taking into account common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC) in accordance with the Paris Agreement, which implies that the climate neutrality targets should be based on cumulative emissions, leading to a convergence in the emissions per capita by 2050 when the world is set to be decarbonized; 3) convergence in the access to decent living standards by 2030 (including decent housing, health and wellbeing, access to resources and services, and energy, convergence in access to efficient technologies, convergence in floor area per capita); 4)convergence in the efficiency of our economies; 5) convergence in the energy intensity; 6)considerations of land use, avoiding a shift in the burden of decarbonization, emissions reductions and carbon dioxide removal to the Global south land.
Addressing these gaps in the scenarios will be a critical first step in undertaking the Special Report on Cities since cities are the places where the majority of people, infrastructure, economic activities and risks converge and are multiplying especially in the Global South. African cities present a major transformative opportunity in the attainment of our global goals. Therefore, improved and inclusive scenarios would
enhance the meaning of the future assessment cycle while producing more policy and action relevant results.